The Heritage Foundation

How scarcity affects donor conversion rate during digital kick off campaign

Experiment ID: #195453

The Heritage Foundation

Experiment Summary

Ended On: 02/19/2025

The membership team tested language that focused on scarcity. Copy used words like “rare and fleeting” and “a unique chance” to evoke a feeling that the opportunity to donate would slip pass them if they didn’t act now.

Results varied between segments. Members saw an 8% decrease in donor conversion rate with a 40-50% LOC, but prospects saw a 16% lift in conversion rate with a 78% LOC.

Putting the results together the added copy did not seem to make difference. The test ran during a mid campaign deadline, which makes testing difficult because the donor intent to give is much higher during deadlines.

Research Question

We believe that emphasizing scarcity in the email will increase the donor conversion rate because framing the opportunity as rare and time-sensitive leverages the psychological principle of urgency and exclusivity, motivating recipients to act quickly to avoid missing out.

Design

C: Control
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T1: Treatment #1
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https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-153x71.jpg [thumb_153_153-width] => 153 [thumb_153_153-height] => 71 [thumb_130_163] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-130x61.jpg [thumb_130_163-width] => 130 [thumb_130_163-height] => 61 [thumb_232_177] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-232x108.jpg [thumb_232_177-width] => 232 [thumb_232_177-height] => 108 [thumb_272_325] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-544x253.jpg [thumb_272_325-width] => 544 [thumb_272_325-height] => 253 [thumb_271_346] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-271x126.jpg [thumb_271_346-width] => 271 [thumb_271_346-height] => 126 [thumb_271_271] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-271x126.jpg [thumb_271_271-width] => 271 [thumb_271_271-height] => 126 [thumb_272_172] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-272x127.jpg [thumb_272_172-width] => 272 [thumb_272_172-height] => 127 [thumb_372_461] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-372x173.jpg [thumb_372_461-width] => 372 [thumb_372_461-height] => 173 [thumb_372_500] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-372x173.jpg [thumb_372_500-width] => 372 [thumb_372_500-height] => 173 [thumb_385_270] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-385x179.jpg [thumb_385_270-width] => 385 [thumb_385_270-height] => 179 [thumb_416_241] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-416x194.jpg [thumb_416_241-width] => 416 [thumb_416_241-height] => 194 [thumb_448_410] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-448x209.jpg [thumb_448_410-width] => 448 [thumb_448_410-height] => 209 [thumb_448_410_retina] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-896x417.jpg [thumb_448_410_retina-width] => 896 [thumb_448_410_retina-height] => 417 [thumb_574_382] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-574x267.jpg [thumb_574_382-width] => 574 [thumb_574_382-height] => 267 [thumb_776_395] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3-776x362.jpg [thumb_776_395-width] => 776 [thumb_776_395-height] => 362 [gform-image-choice-sm] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3.jpg [gform-image-choice-sm-width] => 300 [gform-image-choice-sm-height] => 140 [gform-image-choice-md] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3.jpg [gform-image-choice-md-width] => 400 [gform-image-choice-md-height] => 186 [gform-image-choice-lg] => https://www.nextafter.com/wp-content/uploads/Treatment_1-3.jpg [gform-image-choice-lg-width] => 600 [gform-image-choice-lg-height] => 280 ) ) )

Results

  Treatment Name Conv. Rate Relative Difference Confidence
C: Control 0.11%
T1: Treatment #1 0.11% 0.2% 2.6%

This experiment has a required sample size of 1,328,954,430 in order to be valid. Unfortunately, the required sample size was not met and a level of confidence above 95% was not met so the experiment results are not valid.

Key Learnings

The key learnings from this experiment are that emphasizing scarcity in the email did not have a significant impact on donor conversion rates. While the treatment did see a slight increase in donations for all traffic, the statistical level of confidence was below the threshold of 85%, making the results inconclusive and not valid for future decision making. In future experimentation, it is important to consider the context in which the test is being conducted. In this case, the mid-campaign deadline likely affected donor behavior, making it difficult to isolate the impact of the scarcity messaging. It may be beneficial to run similar tests outside of peak donation periods to get a clearer understanding of the impact of scarcity messaging on donor conversion rates. Additionally, it is important to continue testing different messaging strategies and elements to determine what resonates best with donors. While scarcity messaging may not have had a significant impact in this particular experiment, it is still valuable to explore other tactics that may help increase donor conversion rates. Overall, the key takeaway is that while scarcity messaging did not show a significant impact in this experiment, continued testing and experimentation are essential to optimize messaging strategies for increased donor engagement and conversion rates.


Experiment Documented by NextAfter

Question about experiment #195453

If you have any questions about this experiment or would like additional details not discussed above, please feel free to contact them directly.